Taliban-Pakistan truce: Why India should worry


New Delhi, Feb 18 : India intelligence agencies are worried about the peace deal between the Taliban and the Pakistani Government in the Swat Valley.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) believes that it needs to convince the West that a Talibanised Pakistan with nuclear weapons would be a huge threat to the world.

On February 1, almost two weeks before the imposition of the Sharia law and the truce between the Taliban and Pakistani forces came into effect, National Security Advisor MK Narayanan has said that India was concerned about the stability of Pakistan

"As far as India is concerned as much as that we don't allow our neighbour to go under forces which will definitely be much more inimicable to India than the civilian government there," Narayanan had said.

But those words conceal a mountain of worries. India's intelligence establishment has no doubt that a Taliban takeover will inspire and encourage like-minded groups within India.

They will find safe haven and sanctuaries in Pakistan, the intensity and sophistication of terror strikes will increase and communal polarisation will grow.

So how does India measure up to the challenge of a Talibanised Pakistan?

The most obvious would involve beefing up the armed forces, upgrading counter-terror capabilities and tightening internal security.

But pre-emptive strikes of some kind or even armed conflict are seen as a risky alternative for India.

"The option for India would be either to sit back and wait for this Talibanisation to slowly creep towards us or to go to Afghanistan and help fight it," says Former MEA secretary KC Singh.

The thinking in South Block is that India needs to convince the West that a Talibanised Pakistan is a threat to the world.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons, has expertise in chemical and biological warfare and could be dangerously appealing to a Muslim diaspora in the West that has been under pressure since 9/11.

"That is the big danger and is the big threat which causes panic in the capitals of all western countries because they all believe that if there is a dirty bomb or a nuclear bomb exploded by a terrorist, the source would be Pakistan," former R&AW chief Anand Kumar Verma says.

Intelligence experts believe the West knows and understands the danger.

The US missile strikes in Pakistan's tribal territories is a small-scale war that has taken a heavy toll on Taliban capabilities.

Alongside, Indian diplomats say, the US should bring in key Pakistan allies like China and Saudi Arabia to stabilise and bring peace to Pakistan.

But in the event the Taliban are seen to be moving in on Islamabad or there is a danger of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into their hands. America's mini war in the tribal territories could escalate into a full-scale war with uncertain consequences.