While India faces a constant threat from terrorism sponsored by its Western neighbour, the country's northeast too faces an increasing threat of cross- border terrorism, also encouraged and abetted by state agencies of Pakistan.
Even after making all attempts to plug the loopholes in the preventive mechanism, an attack could not be stopped in Assam on January 1, when P.Chidambaram made his maiden trip as the Home Minister . In 2008 alone over a thousand persons were killed in terrorist- related violence in the northeastern states. The bulk of these deaths occurred in two states - Assam and Manipur. Assam reported 372 fatalities while the death toll in Manipur was just shy of 500, second only to Kashmir, which recorded 539 deaths.
While the country has been preoccupied with Kashmir and escalating terrorist violence elsewhere, separatist related violence in the northeast has been on the rise. The total number of deaths in this region has increased from 640 in 2006 to 1,057 in 2008.
INSURGENCY
Though success of varying degrees has been achieved by the government vis- à- vis various rebel groups from the region since 2003, groups like United Liberation Front of Asom ( ULFA), aim to wage a relentless war void of any clear objective and with support from elements in the Bangladeshi establishment and Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence. The ISI and the Directorate General of Field Intelligence ( DGFI) of Bangladesh are agencies which reportedly facilitate the ULFA's presence and operations.
Groups in Manipur too show no signs of any compromise.
Manipur, with the second highest number of terrorist related deaths after Kashmir, has remained below the national radar. All 59 police stations in the state have reported terrorist activities, and 32 of them have been placed in the high violence category.
The number of terrorists killed in Northeast has increased from 317 in 2006 to 501 in 2007 and to 612 in 2008. But the civilian death toll too has risen from 231 in 2006 to 405 in 2008. Since 1994, an estimated 16,271 persons have been killed in this volatile region. India has been trying for a while to get its neighbours to close down the camps and flush out the militants from their sanctuaries. In December 2003, under considerable pressure from India, the Royal Bhutan Army launched military operations against camps in southern Bhutan along the India- Bhutan border. Some 30 camps belonging to the ULFA, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland ( NDFB) and the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation and others were closed down and about 600 insurgents were killed. But regimes in Bangladesh remain defiant.
However, India is hopeful that following the victory of Awami League in Bangladesh polls, Dhaka would adhere to its demand of dismantling the terror infrastructure and handover the fugitives ( Indian insurgent groups).
ILLEGAL MIGRATION
The terror attacks in Assam last October killed 70 people and had the stamp of Lashkar- e- Taiba ( LeT) and Harkat- ul- Jihadi- Islami's (HuJI) involvement.
Illegal migration is emerging as a migraine for the country and threatening to alter Northeast's demography. With tacit support from political parties, particularly in Assam, illegal immigrants are not only a burden on the state's resources but also a breeding ground for Pak- sponsored terrorism.
Though there are no official figures of actual numbers of illegal Bangladeshis in Assam, their population, according to a rough estimate could be over 2 million of the state's 30 million people.
The problem of illegal migration from Bangladesh to Assam and other parts of the northeast is not only a threat to the identity of the people of the region but also a threat to the nation. The infiltration from Bangladesh is also paving way for sneaking in of ISI operatives to the country.
Expediting the fencing work particularly along Indo- Bangladesh border ( over 4,000 km), issuing of multi- purpose I-cards and putting an end to political interference are imperative to check illegal migration.
BANGLADESH FACTOR
Bangladesh is being used to plan and execute terror attacks against India. Increasing use of its territory by religious extremists, pan- Islamist outfits, and insurgents operating in India's northeast, remains the most serious threat not only to the internal security of the country, but also to the regional security environment.
A number of transnational Islamist terrorist groups, including the al- Qaeda, have established a presence in Bangladesh in alliance with various indigenous militant fundamentalist organisations.
Prominent among these is the Harkat- ul- Jehadi- e- Islami, Bangladesh ( HuJI- BD), which was established with direct aid from Osama bin Laden in 1992.
The HuJI- BD has very close links with the ISI. Indian insurgent groups like ULFA are working in close unison with HuJI- BD and according to US based intelligence think- tank Stratfor have outsourced terror operations to the latter.
Ever since independence, northeast India has witnessed ethnic insurgencies, which have political manifestations and aspirations. What initially began as a home- grown insurgency was sustained in the later years through support in India's neighbourhood.
Any solution therefore has to be arrived at not only through political and social means, but also by dismantling the terror infrastructure on foreign soil and sealing the frontier. Local support for illegal migrants also must dry up to control terrorism.
Over and above a marked improvement in the quality of governance in the states of northeast is imperative to wean away the youth from insurgency.
Controlling corruption, generating jobs and creating capacity building avenues will help a long way in meeting the aspirations of the local youth.
Courtesy: Mail Today